1. Ask a question.

2. Gather as much evidence as possible about it.


3. Develop axioms based on the evidence, and try to assign a probability of truth to each one.

4. Draw a conclusion based on cogency in order to determine: Are these axioms correct, are they relevant, do they necessarily lead to this conclusion, and with what probability?


5. Attempt to disprove the conclusion. Seek refutation from others to further help break your conclusion.


6. If nobody can invalidate your conclusion, then you're probably right, but you're not certainly right.

"That's the scientific method, it's really helpful for figuring out the tricky things."

But most people don't use it, he says. They engage in wishful thinking. They ignore counterarguments. They form conclusions based on what others are doing and aren't doing. The reasoning that results is "It's true because I said it's true," but not because it's objectively true.

"It's really inconsistent to not be the way you want the world to be, and then through some means of trickery, operate according to one moral code while the rest of the world operates according to a different one. This is obviously not something that works. If everyone's trying to trick everyone all the time, it's a lot of noise and confusion. It's better just to be straightforward and try to do useful things."